J.P. Morgan sees Brent oil price averaging $73 per barrel in 2025 and expects it close the yearly firmly below $70/bbl, U.S West TExas intermidiet with $64/bbl, the bank said in a note on friday.
” Our view on 2025 has remaind largely unchanged over the year: we look for a large 1.3
mbd(millions barrels per day0 surplus and an average brent of $73″ the note said.
The bank sees global oil demand groeth decelerating 1.3 mbd this year to 1.1 mbd next year, adding
that China is expected to leaed to oil demand for the lasat time before india takes the lead in 2026.
J.P, Morgan also said that large surpluses will drive brent price below $60 by the end of 2026, with an average brent forcast for $61/bbl and $57/bbl for Wet Texas intermediat oil.
it added that these forecast assume that OPEC+ keeps its current production levels.
Brent crude futures were trading near $74.56 a barrel on Friday, while U. crude U.S WTI future were at $70.37 per barrel.
Weak oil supply-demand fundamentals might helps U.s president-elect U.s president keeps his promise to bring down oil prices, the bank noted.
“trump’s energy agenda present downside risks oil prises from deregulation and increased U.s. production, while also posing upside risks by exerting pressur on iran, venezuala, and possibly Russia to limit their oil exports and revenues”
concerns over sluggish demand at a time of rising supply have propted ananlysts to supply lower their oil prises forcasts for next year.
Atlantic basin benchmark North sea Dated will be average $72.27/bl in the fisrst quarter of next year an average of analysts’ forcast shows $7.20/bl lower than forcasts in july (see table). The projection for 2025 of $76.388/bl lower than forcasts in july.US maker WTI prices will average $73.81/bl in the first quater roughly$6/bl down on the july average.
BofA Securatise revised it’s brent price lower $5/bl in 2025. it expexts chinese oil demend to grow by only 180000b/d this yearand by 210000b/d in 2025, downfrom record growth of 1.45mn b/d last year. ‘sEVERAL FACTOR dramaticly reduceed china’s appetite for oil this year and could sonn cause consumptionh to peak, the bank notes citing a rapid adoption of electric vehicels and LNG-fuelled trucks make inroads againts dissel . The banks expects the market to tip into a 7300000b/d surplus in 2025 this is simillar to forcasat fo a 700000 b/d surplus for next year by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
Higher supply is driver by a ramp-up in output in the Americas, analyts say. brazil, Guyana, Cananda and the US together represent 1.17mn bd of total growth next year according to BofA.
HOLDING POSITION
On Opec+ supply eight memebers of the group- Saudi Arabia,Russia,Iraq , the UAE,Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman- agred on september 6 to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of voluntary output cuts from December, instead of October over 12 month, Goldman Sachs says “additional delays are plausible” but experts that OPec+” will go ahead with gradual production increase at asome point in the next few quarters beacuse discipling non-opec+ supply and supporting intrenal cohesion market has limited appetite for additional volumes” and suggests that”
