The below key drivers are likely to impact investor risk sentiment and fx markets in november .donald trump us clection win and pro business policies led to a stronger us dollar and market valotity across major currencies us trade policies and tariffs of the incoming tump adminidtration is cresting uncertainty for global market adding headwinds to many currrencies .while key central bank have begun cutting intersst rate and easing monetery policy there is there stiill a cautious outlook focuses and economy data .As market expectted the european central bank(ECB) cut interest ratees by 25 at its october 17th policy decisin .Althoufg ECB president ,christine ledgerde seemed to shrug off concerns about the eurozone experst are anticipating a series of successive 25bp cutas as we heads into spring 2025,now infkaurin is back to terget . the letest infkation number released sat the end of october showed an uptick from 1.7 to 2%howering there are plenty og dowsinde risk ,esecially the ongoimg economy woes of germany .its all powerful manufacturing sector is continuing the county is much nedded .
Eurusd was relativerly range bound throngh the moth ,trading between uss1.088 and uss 1.10 . the us clection drove a ship on November 6 as donal trump retook the wthite house with the pair breking under uss 1.07.
looking ahead the main driver for the shered currency will likly be comments from president elect Donald trump about furue trandinf arrangenments .trump seems this be implemented ,the euro could dip lower as we head towards chrismas away from poolitics ,european pmi data on novemver 22 and cpi figues on novem,ver 29 will be the main ares of focus .the pound dippped in ocbor on weaker uk inflation and new tax hikes but rebounded with a bank of england eate cut upcoming uk data and trump trade stance will likely influcene gbp stengh.
gbpusd drited lowerr by uk throughout octobor with better than expectes us data being exacerbated by uk inflaiton fallin from 2.2% to 1.7 when the latest cpi numbers were released on octobor 17th the pound took another hit wheen new chancellor of the exchequr . rachel reeves unveiiled her much anicipated budget on octobor 30reeves unveiled large tax hikes totalling around $40 bn a year , with businesses bearing much of the brunt . thankfully ,the selloff in the pound was short lived and we didn’t see anything like the dramatic drop withnessed after formar prime minister liz truss ill fated budget of 2022.
GBPUSD ended septeber around UUS 1.2840 adrop of around five cents during the moth .
after the us election caused a deop uss 1.29 GBPUSD was given some upward momentum by the bank of england interrest rate decisin on november 7 rates were cut as expected from 5% to 4.75% but boe governor on november 7 rates were may be slower than previously thoutht .this was enough for gbpusd to ouch back up uss1.30 and gbpeur to brack back above uss 1.20.
Looking ahead key events to keep an eye on is the cpi data on november 20 and ratail sales data on novemver 22 comments from president elect trump regarding trade realation with the uk likely have big impacty on the valu of the pound .
